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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still